<>Discussion Thread – What Happens Next?
>Iraqi national elections are scheduled in less than two months.
Given the Bush administration’s insistence on the subject it seems likely that some sort of elections will actually be held on schedule, but their contention that security can be established sufficient to ensure fully legitimate elections strikes me as laughable.
What do you think the outcome will be? Will the administration use the elections as cover to install another secular strongman? What if the Shi’ites achieve a majority – will they insist on a theocratic state? Will the Sunnis participate enough to feel any ownership in an elected government? What about the Kurds?
And finally, if you were an American leader in a position to implement a rational Iraqi policy, what would you do right now? What steps could be taken this late in the game to ensure a fairly representative government with national legitimacy that could undertake the process of building a constitutional order?
Please confine your comments here to this topic. News and other discussion can still be posted in the comments to the very long post below.